The playcalling DNA of every staff in the NFL.
Built from per-play tracking data — personnel, formation, coverage shell. Every coordinator's tendencies by down and distance, the drift when staffs change, and an early research engine that projects how a new staff is likely to lean.
Three layers. One cube.
A descriptive fingerprint of every staff, a function that predicts what a new hire will do, and a simulator that runs the game ten thousand times.
The gameplan fingerprint
Every team's identity across 20 dimensions: formation mix, personnel mix, situational pass rates, EPA by situation. Cross-season normalized, coach-aware drift over time.
What a new hire will call
f(new coach, current roster) → projected Year-1 fingerprint. Blends coach DNA, college lineage, roster archetypes and team-history anchor. Backtested on held-out staffs — honest about where it holds and where tendencies revert to the mean.
Run the game 10,000 times
Sample per play from P(outcome | personnel, coverage, coach play-call). Output: win-probability and scoring distributions for calibration and scenario analysis — scout-grade, not a betting product.
Read a coordinator like a fingerprint.
The depth no one else ships. Self-scout your own tendencies, or strip an opponent's playbook down to down, distance and situation — then watch how it shifts the moment a staff changes.
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A
Tendencies by down & situation
Pass/run split, formation and personnel leaning, and EPA for every situation bucket — 1st & 10 through 3rd & long, two-minute, red zone.
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B
Coaching-era drift
The Roman→Monken change at BAL in one column: pistol collapsed 33%→7%, shotgun exploded to 78%. The coordinator drives the gameplan more than the head coach.
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C
College lineage priors for rookies
Extrapolate a rookie's likely fit and a first-year coordinator's tendencies from their college background — before there's a single NFL snap to chart.
See it in the workspace.
Pick a staff from the rail, read their tendencies by situation, and switch the lens without leaving the screen.
Kyle Shanahan · Coordinator DNA
Generated from real plays — not mockups.
Each chart is produced directly from the cube in seconds. Real plays, real personnel, real coaching staffs.
Gameplan Fingerprint
Shanahan's identity in one chart: 38% under-center, 31% 21-personnel, +0.46 EPA on early-down passes.
Coaching-Era Drift
The Roman→Monken OC change in a single column. Pistol 33%→7%, shotgun to 78%.
Irreplaceable Players
Personnel-conditioned EPA delta. Five players each shifting team EPA by +0.13 to +0.22.
Defensive Identity
Macdonald's match-quarters scheme: 39% Cover-1, −0.39 EPA allowed on 3rd-and-long.
Identity Distinctiveness
Every team's z-score deviation across 10 dimensions. Find the outliers in seconds.
Hold-out Backtest
BAL 2023 excluded from the build. Pass-rate predictions within 7 points. L2 error 28.0 — and dropping.
Every metric is benchmarked. We publish what failed.
We publish the metrics that failed, too.
Separation didn't predict route grade. The in-sample betting edge was selection bias. We tested them, they didn't hold, and we say so. If a number doesn't track the standard, it doesn't ship.
Sixteen years in the making.
The cube design converged in 2010. The data substrate finally caught up.
The Cube
A multi-dimensional cube design in VBScript — 4,826 lines, three full iterations before the architecture converged. The technique worked; the substrate was the limit.
The Substrate Caught Up
Per-play personnel, jersey numbers on the field, coverage shells, time-to-throw. CFBD for college tendencies and rookie backgrounds. A Dictionary-of-dictionaries became a Polars DataFrame on a 146 MB Parquet store.
The Engine Ships
Descriptive renders for every team. A composition function that predicts coaching-hire outcomes from college lineage and roster archetypes. A Monte Carlo simulator on the roadmap.
Get early access to the gameplan engine.
We're validating the predictive engine across a growing set of coaching-hire backtests. Join the list and we'll notify you when the technical white paper drops and the descriptive cube opens for select teams.